BoM seasonal outlook is worth a watch to see what the next few months’ weather are likely to be like.
- November, in particular, is likely to be drier than average in many areas.
- November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average.
- A drier and warmer than average three months would mean a low chance of recovery for drought-affected areas of eastern Australia.
- The tropical Pacific Ocean has been warming in recent weeks. Thus, El Niño likely to develop before the end of the year. El Niño typically results in below-average spring rainfall and warmer days.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway which, during spring, typically reduces rainfall across much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia and can exacerbate any El Niño-driven rainfall deficiencies.
When combined, El Niño and a positive IOD in spring increases the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year in parts of Australia. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south. Therefore, it is likely that significant areas of Victoria will be under signifinacnt soil moisture deficit because of the lack of rainfall this (and in previous) year.
This will likely have a consequential effect on nectar flow and thus honey production – in summary, things do not look good for honey production for spring and summer, nor into autumn at present conditions.
We will keep you updated on flowering and honey flow as and when we can.